Recent commentary from Bill Evans of Westpac forecasts the RBA decreasing rates by 1% over the next year. This is after (November 2010) he said rates would increase by the same amount over the 2011 year, which is not eventuating. Although a 1% decrease is unlikely (he is alone amongst economists in this view), his comments however at least mark a level of sensibility not heard in a while and reflect the challenge that faces the RBA.
It took a profit downgrade from DJ’s to make the top brass realise what everyone else has been feeling for months, that the economy in a main, is hurting. Lifting rates, even only an additional 0.25%, would send the vast majority of Australians into a deep depression.
In a telling sign about the concern of the RBA, for the first time since December 2010, they began their discussion of their last meeting with a review of financial markets. They are still following the IMF's optimistic forecast of world growth, but acknowledge the significant downside risk from Europe for the world economy.